CapitolBeatOK Staff Report 

Published: 16-Jun-2010

Mary Fallin and Gary Jones have early leads in the races for governor and auditor and inspector, a new SoonerPoll finds. Meanwhile, in the potential November matchups studied by the SoonerPoll, incumbent Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland is in virtual tie with a potential Republican opponent in the general election.

In surveying that ran from May 25 to June 9, the polling organization found U.S. Rep. Fallin, presently the Fifth Congressional District incumbent, has a wide lead over her strongest opponent in the July 27 Republican primary race for governor, and more than 50 percent support against one Democratic opponent in November’s race. She has a narrower but still strong margin over another likely competitor, the polling discovered.

Jones, the likely Republican nominee for auditor and inspector, has less than 50 percent support now, but last week began the race against appointed incumbent
Steve Burrage, a Democrat, with a double digit advantage. A large group of undecided voters could shift dynamics in that contest before November.

Former state Sen.
Scott Pruitt has the edge over his primary opponent Ryan Leonard in the attorney general’s contest. In the Grand Old Party’s races for treasurer and lieutenant governor, state Rep. Ken Miller and Sen. Todd Lamb, respectively, have primary advantages that exceed the margin of error. However, huge undecided segments of the GOP electorate could either enhance or erode those margins in the coming weeks.

In the Insurance Commissioner’s race, political newcomer John Doak and Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland are in a statistical deadheat, with Doak’s reported advantage well within the margin of error. The polling did not include late entries into the race, including former Commissioner John Crawford’s leap into the GOP fray.

For those drawn to the “horse race” approach to political analysis, the survey results from several of the statewide races affirm the widely held view that 2010 will be a strong year for Republicans in Oklahoma. Another sign of latest Republican strength: state Sen.
Randy Brogdon of Owasso is far behind Fallin in this survey of the primary joust – yet at this early stage runs well against either of the Democratic hopefuls.

Still ahead are the various primary contests, candidate forums, television, radio print, online and other advertising, news reporting and other steps that will bring greater scrutiny to the candidates themselves and to their views on substantive political issues.

SoonerPoll finished its new poll to coincide with last week’s end of the Oklahoma filing period. Some results from the poll that gauged Oklahoma public opinion on key statewide races were released on Wednesday. Results were provided to CapitolBeatOK.

Further results pertaining to several Republican primary races are now available. Today’s results indicate leaders in the following races: Republican Attorney General primary, Republican State Treasurer Primary, Republican Lieutenant Governor primary and Republican Governor primary.

The final preliminary “topline” results are listed below:

•                If the Republican primary election for Attorney General were held today, 32.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for Scott Pruitt while 9.3 percent said they would vote for Ryan Leonard. 58.3 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

•                If the Republican primary election for Oklahoma State Treasurer were held today, 21 percent of respondents said they would vote for Ken Miller while 10.8 percent said they would vote for Owen Laughlin. 68.2 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

•                If the Republican primary election for Oklahoma State Lieutenant Governor were held today, 24.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for Todd Lamb while 17 percent said they would vote for John Wright. 59 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

•                If the Republican primary election for Oklahoma State Governor were held today, 59 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mary Fallin, 10.2 percent said they would vote for Randy Brogdon, 1.9 percent said they would vote for Roger L. Jackson and 1.2 percent said they would vote for Robert Hubbard. 27.8 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 324 likely voters from May 25 – June 9, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.4 percent.

•                If the Oklahoma State Auditor election were held today, 41.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for Gary Jones while 21.7 percent said they would vote for Steve Burrage. 37.1 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 420 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.8 percent.

•                If the Oklahoma State Insurance Commissioner election were held today, 33.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for John Doak while 32.4 percent said they would vote for Kim Holland. 34.4 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

•                If the Democratic Primary for Oklahoma State Governor were held today, 37.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for Drew Edmondson while 35.8 percent said they would vote for Jari Askins. 27 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 318 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 5.5 percent.

•                In a Governor race between Drew Edmondson and Randy Brogdon, 41.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for Edmondson while 40.2 percent said they would vote for Brogdon. 18.7 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

•                In a Governor race between
Drew Edmondson and Mary Fallin, 50.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for Fallin while 35 percent said they would vote for Edmondson. 14.7 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

•                In a Governor race between Randy Brogdon and Jari Askins, 43.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Askins while 35.8 percent said they would vote for Brogdon. 20.7 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

In a Governor race between Mary Fallin and
Jari Askins, 48.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Fallin while 36.2 percent said they would vote for Askins. 15.3 percent remain undecided. SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 – June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

Note: SoonerPoll.com kindly provided these results to CapitolBeatOK. Editor Patrick B. McGuigan contributed to this report.