Fallin has early lead in Rasmussen Poll

CapitolBeatOK Staff Report

Published: 30-Jul-2010

Republican U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin leads Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins in Rasmussen Reports’ first post-primary look at the race for governor of Oklahoma. The winner will be the state’s first woman governor.

Fallin, the winner of a four-way GOP Primary contest on Tuesday, now earns 57% of the vote to Askins’ 36%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Askins won a razor-thin victory over state Attorney General Drew Edmonson in Tuesday’s Democratic Primary.

Last month, Fallin posted a 55% to 32% lead over Askins. In February in the only other Rasmussen Reports survey of this year’s Oklahoma governor’s race, the GOP hopeful bested Askins 51% to 37%.

 Fallin holds a two-to-one lead among male voters and leads by 10 among women.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans surveyed support Fallin, while 66% of Democrats have rallied to Askins thus far. The Democrat holds a slight lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate race on Saturday.

Just six percent (6%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent, but 56% view it as poor. Fifty-one percent (51%) feel the economy is getting worse, while 23% say it’s getting better.

Askins wins strong support from those who say the economy is improving. Fallin earns even stronger support from those who believe it is worsening.

An overwhelming 75% of all Oklahoma voters think the country is in a recession, according to the survey.

Only 21% think the $787-billion stimulus plan proposed by President Obama and passed by Congress has helped the economy. Forty-five percent (45%) think it has hurt. This is a more negative view of the stimulus than voters have nationwide.

Voters are slightly more optimistic about their personal finances, with one-in-three (35%) who rate their personal finances as good or excellent, and just 18% who rate them as poor. But only 20% think their personal finances are getting better, while 44% say they are getting worse.

Two-out-of-three Oklahoma voters (67%) favor repeal of the health care plan, compared to 56% nationally. Twenty-eight percent (28%) oppose repeal. This includes 58% who Strongly Favor repeal and 21% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Oklahoma voters favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona’s in their state, and 67% disagree with the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge the law in court. Both findings indicate much higher support for the Arizona law in the state than voters express nationally.

Supporters of the Arizona law strongly back Fallin; opponents strongly favor Askins.

Fallin is viewed Very Favorably by 24% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by eight percent (8%).

For Askins, Very Favorables are also 24%, and Very Unfavorables are 12%.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports still considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters approve of the job Brad Henry is doing as governor, while 38% disapprove. This is largely unchanged from the previous survey. The Democratic governor is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.