CHS Poll finds Fallin 22 percent ahead of Edmondson, Askins

CapitolBeatOK Staff Report

Published: 19-May-2010

A new survey released by the Oklahoma polling firm Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (CHS) shows U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin, Republican candidate for governor, with an identical 22-point lead over both Democratic party candidates running in the Democratic primary.

Rep. Fallin leads both Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins by a margin of 52% to 30% among registered voters. Fallin also leads Edmondson and Askins among conservative Democrats (45% Fallin vs. 33% Edmondson and 52% Fallin vs. 27% Askins).

In a report entitled “2010: End of ‘Oklahoma’ Democrats?”, CHS Director of Survey Research Pat McFerron writes:         

“At this time, Mary Fallin holds a commanding lead over both of her well-known Democrat challengers. Against both Drew Edmondson and Jari Askins, Fallin has identical 22-point leads (52% Fallin / 30% Askins and Edmondson). Republicans line-up behind Fallin in both contests by a 9 to 1 ratio, while conservative Democrats (45% Fallin vs. 33% Edmondson and 52% Fallin vs. 27% Askins) break her direction in a decisive manner.

“Again, we see statewide support for the Republican ticket. In fact, Fallin leads both Democrats in urban (56% Fallin vs. 28% Edmondson and 54% Fallin vs. 29% Askins) and rural (49% Fallin vs. 32% Edmondson and 50% Fallin vs. 30% Askins) Oklahoma.

“It should be noted that Fallin’s support is not solely based on the Republican tide. This not only shows that she has developed her own image, but also reveals that, should she be the Republican nominee, she can have some coattails of her own that will help other candidates.

“As evidence is the fact that among those undecided on the state legislative generic ballot, Fallin leads both Edmondson and Askins by double-digits. Clearly, she has an appeal to swing voters – and not just those who are a part of the Republican coalition.”

The CHS report also concludes: “…voters no longer see a significant difference between the Oklahoma Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party.”

This edition of The Sooner Survey was conducted April 19-22, and was drawn from telephone interviews with 500 voters.

Wednesday night, McFerron declined to respond to CapitolBeatOK’s request for information on how state Sen. Randy Brogdon of Owasso (Fallin’s leading opponent for the Grand Old Party’s nomination) fared in head-to-head polling against Askins and Edmondson.