Analysis: Oklahoma’s partisan trends shifting, registration deadline nears
By Patrick B. McGuigan
Published: 04-Oct-2010
Based on voter registration data in Oklahoma, it seems likely the steady advance of Republicans to a dominant position in the state Legislature will continue and possibly solidify as a result of the 2010 election. With Election Day four weeks away – and early voting beginning the week before that — the possibility of a major shift in statewide races below the federal level is now the subject of widespread discussion.
If such a shift occurs, it could mean the 11 elected statewide offices in Oklahoma will, after November 2, mirror or even exceed the Republican share of the Legislature. Presently, members of the Grand Old Party hold only three of the 11 elective statewide non-federal positions. Nine of those posts will be decided November 2.
To some extent, all discussion about a likely shift in statewide Republican office numbers arises based simply on raw registration numbers.
However, perhaps of equal significance is the fact that qualified voters choosing to register as Independents now constitute one-tenth of the Oklahoma electorate. In 1980, Independents made up barely more than one percent of those registered.
Regardless of which party or non-party is “up” or which is “down,” the last day of voter registration for this election is looming. To participate in the November 2 balloting, the deadline is the close of business this Friday (October 8).
Registration applications can be downloaded at the State Election Board website: http://www.ok.gov/elections/. Applications are also available, state officials say, “at County Election Board offices, post offices, public libraries, military recruiting offices, and most social welfare agencies.”
According to state law, a person desiring to register must be at least 18 years old on or before Election Day, a U.S. citizen, and “a legal resident of the State of Oklahoma.”
Last January, state Election Board Chairman Paul Ziriax released the state’s annual voter registration report. At that point, he found there were 813,158 registered Republicans in Oklahoma, 39.9% of all voters in the state. There were 999,855 Democrats (49% of all voters) – the first time in modern history the number of registered Democrats had fallen below 1 million, and the first time ever the party of Jefferson had dropped below 50% of all registered voters.
Ziriax updated registration data on September 15, reporting the number of registered Democrats had dropped to 998,130 (48.4% of all voters) compared to a Republican increase to 831,706 registrants (40.3%).
Including Independents, here are this year’s two registration snapshots:
Voter Registration Statistics as of September 15, 2010:
Party 9/15/2010
======= =======
Democrat 998,139 (48.4%)
Republican 831,706 (40.3%)
Independent 233,768 (11.3%)
TOTAL 2,063,613
Official Voter Registration Statistics on January 15, 2010:
Party 1/15/2010
======= =======
Democrat 999,855 (49.0%)
Republican 813,158 (39.9%)
Independent 225,607 (11.1%)
TOTAL 2,038,620
Ziriax found the number of registered voters had increased by 24,993 between January 15 and September 15. While the number of Republicans jumped by 18,548 and the number of independents had risen by 8,161, Democratic party registration had decreased by 1,716.
Providing a snapshot of the change over a period of three decades, Ziriax pointed out, “In 1980, Democrats were 75.8% of registered voters in Oklahoma, Republicans were 22.8%, and Independents were 1.4%.”
For purposes of comparison, here are the registration numbers year-by-year since 1996, taken from the state Election Board’s website. In years where the numbers in this chart do not “add up” perfectly, it is due to the presence of Libertarian or Reform party memberships when they had formal party status.
Year Democrat Republican Independent Total
1996 1,112,560 624,240 86,948 1,823,748
1997 1,171,620 693,076 122,139 1,986,982
1998 1,158,754 691,942 139,626 1,990,591
1999 1,183,523 718,534 157,760 2,059,817
2000 1,189,332 734,382 174,649 2,098,750
2001 1,233,481 803,908 202,266 2,240,681
2002 1,079,298 729,393 199,164 2,008,036
2003 1,099,458 758,275 214,887 2,072,935
2004 1,022,442 720,121 195,334 1,938,377
2005 1,100,263 822,131 227,163 2,149,557
2006 1,021,053 778,405 209,515 2,008,973
2007 1,045,490 805,607 224,464 2,075,561
2008 1,012,594 790,713 219,230 2,022,537
2009 1,077,616 860,378 246,002 2,183,996
2010 999,855 813,158 225,607 2,038,620
2010(Sept/) 998,139 831,706 233,768 2,063,613
(Background: On January 15 of each year, the State Election Board reports the official voter registration statistics for the State of Oklahoma. For more information, view the official Voter Registration Reports here: http://www.ok.gov/elections/Voter_Registration/Voter_Registration_Reports/index.html)